There’s Nothing Stopping the New Avatar Movie Now
The sequel to James Cameron’s Avatar was the butt of too many jokes over several years, beyond those conflating it with Avatar: The Last Airbender, thanks to just how long it was taking to complete. The first movie released in 2009 to overwhelming critical and commercial acclaim, the kind that led to a studio (20th Century Fox in this case; now 20th Century Studios as part of Disney) approving the grandiose plan for multiple follow-ups with swiftness. But everyone involved wildly underestimated the wait, during which small updates from Cameron were provided for years on end.
Most movie projects aren’t allowed to languish in production hell after so long a time. But it was a testament to just how well Avatar performed at the box office and the prestige the mere mention of “James Cameron” carries with it that Fox let it stew. One look at Cameron’s filmography will show several lengthy gaps in the number of movies he’s released, but that’s understandable when that resume is full of hits. It admittedly felt like this would never release for a time, when it was tempting to laugh a bit at anyone who maintained faith. (I always felt it would come, by the way.) That time, thankfully, is now over. Now that the final trailer is available, it’s safe to mention that nothing will stop Avatar: The Way of Water from landing in theaters on December 16th.
The movie will arrive almost precisely 13 years after the original film, following a predecessor that came when 3D cinematic theater presentations were at their most popular point. The sequel won’t have that selling point to accompany it, but that’s unnecessary for its appeal when the film has looked strikingly beautiful from every trailer provided throughout this year. No trailers have included glimpses at the live-action segments, enough to give the impression that it’s an entirely CG-animated film for anyone who either hasn’t seen or doesn’t remember the first movie. But it’s tough to blame them with how sublime it looks in motion. The VFX work is jaw-dropping compared to other recent Disney works, like the iffy contributions from viciously overworked contractors for Marvel Entertainment.
Yet, it’s also become clear how much it will cost for it to profit. Cameron mentioned to GQ Magazine during an interview that the movie is “very fucking expensive.” He reportedly told Disney and 20th Century Studios executives that it would have to be “the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history” to “break even,” let alone profit. This means the movie will have to make around $2 billion, an extremely tall order considering the continued disheveled state of the box office yet to recover from the still-not-over Covid-19 pandemic. All of that pretty CG work, alongside keeping the movie in production for so many years and having top-tier actors like Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldaña, Sam Worthington, Vin Diesel, Michelle Yeoh, and Kate Winslet involved, is coming at a steep price.
But it would be foolish to think there’s no chance The Way of Water will make that amount back. The IMAX rerelease of the first movie in September placed third in the United States box office charts and made around $30 million in its first weekend globally, a phenomenal amount and a surefire way to measure the excessive hype for the sequel. The theatrical movie industry remains far from healthy these days, but some movies are still doing well, like Top Gun: Maverick and the recent Marvel movies. The audience will come out for a good blockbuster. With this being a sequel to a movie many of them watched years ago or again recently, and it releasing without much competition thanks to other studios fearing its behemoth status, it seriously could make its bulbous budget back. There are never certainties with these predictions, so I’m hesitant to claim anything definitive about its performance here.
It’s at least encouraging that Cameron has an alternative plan in case it comes up short. If The Way of Water underperforms, the third movie will be retooled into a conclusion, and the planned fourth and fifth movies won’t be made. For Cameron’s sake, I hope the movie does well considering this franchise’s status as a pet project for him. Though he admitted to the potential that he may not direct the fourth and fifth films, he’ll remain involved in their productions in some form. He saw what happened to the Terminator sequels beyond Judgment Day. In any case, the fate of the fourth and fifth movies is clearly not written in figurative stone.
It’s intriguing enough to consider how this movie will turn out. For anyone who doesn’t share that though, it will at least be entertaining to see just how well this movie performs. If it doesn’t, just don’t expect Cameron to return to the likes of the Alien and Terminator franchises like some poor, deluded fans are hoping against hope for. Let’s just revel in how the movie is coming out at all after so much time.
About The Author
Geoff
News Editor | Geoff is some nerd who writes for a blog and thinks he's knowledgeable. He write a lot about video games, but is capable of writing about other subjects, too. Twitter
