Cognition Dissemination: How Long Until Blizzard Starts Working on Call of Duty?

There was bad news for anyone who likes variety in the AAA video game development space or Activision’s gaming legacy: Every development studio under Activision’s main branch is now working on Call of Duty in some form. It’s become their destiny (but not Destiny, which they no longer own), thanks to the franchise continuing to absorb more development houses over the years in its seemingly-bottomless hunger.

The newest casualty is Toys for Bob, responsible for the recent release of Crash Bandicoot 4: It’s About Time. The game that revived the dormant Crash Bandicoot franchise garnered a good reception from critics and fans, but wasn’t as big of a hit as those fans expected. Chances are Activision and the vocal fans who wanted Crash back after all this time were hoping it would sell like the N. Sane Trilogy, but it’s now clear that remaster collection of the first three games sold so well thanks to nostalgia for the PSOne titles. The audience that wanted the pack wasn’t as interested in a brand-new game, in a harsh lesson for everyone involved in creating it, those who wanted it, and anyone who has ideas for reviving other franchises. Instead of working on a new Spyro the Dragon game like fans wanted them to, they’re now tending to other matters. They have become Toys for Bobby.

This sordid scenario raises a good question: How long will it take until Blizzard is working on Call of Duty games?

I’m not asking this just to be cheeky, although that’s a small part of it — it’s a genuine concern. Video games in the big-budget AAA development sphere are only requiring higher budgets and more resources over time, with the increased need for pushing high production values and feature support for several months after launch. Activision’s commitment to keeping the Call of Duty series annual exacerbates the need to have several teams working on it simultaneously. There’s no incentive to change this and relax the schedule considering COD games are always among the highest-selling games every year they’re released and for months afterward.

It’s easy to picture this getting worse over the years, and Blizzard is right in the crosshairs. They’ve thus far remained independent by working on projects like Warcraft III: Reforged and continuing updates on Overwatch and World of Warcraft, while working on upcoming releases like Diablo IV, Diablo II: Resurrected, and Overwatch 2. Hopefully they stay that way for years to come, but it’s difficult not to get concerned for what’s in store given who they’re partnered with.

Activision Blizzard mentioned in their latest financial results that Blizzard has 27 million players across their titles as of the first quarter of 2021. It’s a solid number, but, as Massively OP reported (and Eurogamer noted), that’s down from 29 million players from the fourth quarter of 2020, meaning they’ve lost around two million players over a quarter. Their player base has also dropped by nearly 29 percent over the last three years.

There are good reasons for this. Support for Diablo 3 and StarCraft 2 has been winding down; while Heroes of the Storm didn’t reach the same level of success, it’s also winding down from its height. Now that Blizzard has ceased updating Overwatch to save content for its sequel, its player base should also start dwindling.

None of Blizzard’s biggest new titles are planned for launch anytime soon, outside of maybe mobile title Diablo Immortal and Diablo II: Resurrected. There’s no way to currently tell how big of an audience a Blizzard game can grab on phones, nor is it clear that it will live down its memetic announcement. The latter title, meanwhile, is a remake, the kind of game that doesn’t tend to attract as big of an audience as a brand-new one. Activision execs, especially good-old Bobby, will be intently watching these player counts as they plan their next moves.

It’s not all bad, though… yet. Blizzard could be in the process of making promises about what their future titles will bring in terms of profit and support. Diablo II: Resurrected could bring in and keep a bunch of players if it turns out better than Warcraft 3: Reforged. The vocal audience hopping mad about the altered character designs is unlikely to be that big, and most of them will buy it anyway. The big events will be Diablo IV and Overwatch 2, both set to launch in 2022. The question is whether Activision will want to wait that long, even if they only request minimal support for the next Call of Duty game or the title after that one.

Watching a publisher who used to release a variety of titles transition to assigning most of its developers to one big franchise, while only occasionally releasing titles in other franchises, has been sobering. But it was also predictable. This has happened at several big development and publisher houses as resource needs have increased, and this will occur more over time. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Blizzard eventually became, say, Toys for COD. It’s a good thing we’ll have plenty of indie and AA/B-tier titles (the latter of which made by indie developers that have moved up to higher-budgeted titles) over the next several years.