Cognition Dissemination: Live Service Games Aren’t Surefire Bets

It was only two years ago when the first supposed signs of single-player AAA games being on the ropes emerged. It happened just as several in the gaming audience and pressed noticed the increased interest publishers had in live service games, titles constantly updated with free and paid content after release. It was no longer enough for some publishers to simply release a game with a little extra downloadable content down the line; these days, games need to be supported for years with new content for publishers to maximize possible profits off expensive games, and make money on them in general. Publishers saw the successes of Destiny and The Division and either wanted a piece of that or doubled down on their plans.

These plans became most noticeable when EA cancelled the Ragtag single-player Star Wars game in development, and shuttered its developer Visceral Games, in favor of a potential live service open world Star Wars game — though that also ended up being cancelled.

Now, we’re seeing how the plans from publishers to make a plethora of live service games might have been too hasty. Skeptics warned against publishers going all in on these types of games a couple of years ago, but even they didn’t think we’d see signs of cracks in the armor this soon, before the next generation of consoles has even arrived. Three games of this type have performed below expectations this year.

The first one was Anthem, the failure of which was very, very well publicized. This was the biggest game Bioware had ever developed, the resources required for which dwarfed titles like the previous Mass Effect and Dragon Age titles. Bioware also discussed how important this project would be for the company’s continued existence, which several interpreted as them putting their life on the line given the rate at which EA kills companies. Unfortunately for everyone involved, the game arrived in a disastrous state, with several glitches and game design issues, the result of a reportedly hellacious development cycle. Bioware spent time patching the game in the weeks and months after it released, but they couldn’t overcome the initial disappointment purchasers had with the product.

EA confirmed during a conference call that Anthem’s sales hadn’t lived up to expectations, though didn’t share precisely how many copies the game sold. Despite their disappointment, it’s still one of the best-selling games this year, which shows just how high their expectations were for it. These days, the frequency of updates for the game has slowed (but they’re still coming), the community’s numbers have dropped, and copies can often be found for low prices. It’s an unfortunate turn of events, but let’s hope Bioware doesn’t join the legion of companies murdered by good ol’ Papa EA.

Ubisoft confirmed during a conference call that Tom Clancy’s The Division 2 sold below expectations. (PDF file) This was initially confirmed through its launch sales in May, where they blamed “a more competitive environment than expected” as the culprit. But it’s now apparent that sales didn’t pick up from there. There are several enjoying the game, but they noted how updates have been slower than expected. Others didn’t like the Washington DC setting as much as New York City from the first game. Note that the Division 2, like Anthem, is still one of the best-selling games this year, further proof that expectations for these games are through the roof.

The most predictable one here is Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon Breakpoint, also from Ubisoft. It’s underperforming critically, which became apparent right when the review embargo was lifted just before the game released. The game was, and is being, criticized for its world not being as enjoyable to play or maneuver in compared to the universe of its predecessor Ghost Recon Wildlands, the brain-dead AI, and how important several pay-to-win microtransactions are (though some of these have already been patched out — for now). To no surprise, it’s also underperforming commercially. The company outlined plans to fix the game’s problems in the near future just today. Whether they’ll be enough is another question.

This is proof that live service games aren’t the safe bets several publishers thought only a couple of years ago, but it also shows just how high expectations are for them to succeed. Anthem and The Division 2 are two of the best-selling games this year, yet their publishers are still disappointed with their sales. Perhaps they were expecting sales on par with the Call of Duty games, Rockstar’s last two titles (Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2), or even the Destiny games. If these titles are so expensive to make and support, their productions are not sustainable. This will only get worse with more powerful consoles coming in just over a year.

Some publishers will take this opportunity to further polish their games, which is why Ubisoft delayed three of their upcoming projects out of the fiscal year last week. But history suggests that most big publishers will do nothing in response to increasing production costs, expectations being too high, and studios all chasing the big trends simultaneously — especially Ubisoft in the latter case, whose lineup was full of live service games. In this current gaming period, one catastrophic failure can lead to a developer closing, and hopefully that doesn’t happen with the ostensibly too-big-to-fail larger publishers.