Cognition Dissemination: Is Nintendo Funding Bayonetta 3 a Possibility?

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Few thought Nintendo would deliver any Earth-shattering Super Smash Bros. news after announcing (and subsequently releasing) Final Fantasy VII’s Cloud Strife in a mid-November Nintendo Direct, but last month’s Smash Direct actually did come with a big unveil. Sure, some were surprised Nintendo and director Masahiro Sakurai had the audacity to insert another Fire Emblem character (and spoil Fire Emblem Fates in the process), but the more important reveal was for the Smash Ballot winner: Bayonetta.

Bayonetta had actually been heavily requested since Nintendo announced the deal to publish PlatinumGames’ Bayonetta 2 exclusively for Wii U in 2012, back when this title was simply known as “the next Smash.” It was to the point where Hideki Kamiya, director of the first Bayonetta, started blocking anyone who asked for his support on his Twitter account. (Kamiya blocks people for a lot of things, by the way.) The Smash team is frighteningly good at faithfully inserting characters into each Smash game, and Bayonetta’s portrayal here is no exception. She’ll be available for purchase sometime in February, and hopefully early in the month.

This news raised an interesting, though perhaps unsurprising, question among Nintendo fans: Does her inclusion open the door for Bayonetta 3 happening?

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While a third Bayonetta title could happen in the future, it won’t be due to her inclusion here. After all, that would mean Samus’ continued appearances in Smash would have teased further Metroid games, and Captain Falcon’s appearance would lead to more F-Zero. Unfortunately, neither has come to pass; and no, Metroid Prime: Federation Force for 3DS doesn’t count for clearly defined reasons, despite its potential. It’s also worth noting that Bayonetta was included due to the aforementioned fan poll, and not through the developers’ desire to see her represented — though I’m sure they didn’t mind.

If Bayonetta 3 were to happen, it would be for reasons beyond the titular character’s Smash appearance. But even then, the outlook isn’t rosy. One of the biggest reasons why Nintendo published Bayonetta 2 was due to the project being at least partially complete, meaning they merely had to fund its remaining development. Some also tend to forget Bayonetta is Sega’s property, who originally cancelled the sequel thanks to the first game selling below expectations and desire to leave the AAA gaming market. Nintendo needed core-aimed Wii U-exclusives to potentially attract the core gaming audience to their then-new console, and Bayonetta 2 was a convenient one.

This means Nintendo green lighting a third installment would entail funding its entire development. And despite having a new console or handheld (or both, since all we know about NX is that it’s a dedicated gaming device) on the horizon, a new Bayonetta may not be in their best interests from a business perspective, despite how great it could be. All indications suggest Bayonetta 2 wasn’t the highest selling game around, despite also including a definitive edition of the first game with bonus Nintendo outfits. It’s likely a third game wouldn’t be profitable, even if it could be marketed through Bayonetta’s Smash appearance.

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Instead of making another title with a franchise mainly owned by Sega, it might be better for Nintendo and PlatinumGames to collaborate on a new property owned by the former. Sure, while they already tried this with The Wonderful 101, this new property would be directly marketed towards fans of Bayonetta. Nintendo may also feel PlatinumGames would be a better fit for working on another Nintendo legacy franchise, similar to the upcoming Star Fox Zero — a title co-directed by Bayonetta 2 director Yusuke Hashimoto. This logic would also apply to any other first-party publisher, especially if Sega is disinterested in letting anyone else use the property.

The keyword in that last paragraph is “if,” because I could be drawing the wrong conclusion here depending on how a scenario could play out behind the scenes. Perhaps Nintendo could work with Sega on a third game, with both companies providing adequate funding to get it off the ground. But that’s a tough gamble since it would assume Nintendo wants to keep a low-selling franchise with a clearly sizable budget around, and that Sega would, well, not be Sega.

The uncertainty in this post shows how it’s tough to determine whether a third Bayonetta title could exist. PlatinumGames could also be too busy to work on it in the future. If titles like Scalebound for Xbox One(which is being directed by Kamiya), NieR: Automata for PS4, the poorly-kept secret that’s the upcoming Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles game, and the aforementioned Star Fox Zero are runaway successes, the publishers involved in them would like sequels. If not, Xenoblade Chronicles X (which, in fairness, is a fully-owned Nintendo property) and the last few Fatal Frame games have shown that Nintendo likes to keep certain core franchises around for future installments, so keep your fingers crossed.

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